Campaign 2008: Key Strategy for Democrats: UNITY!

Today’s Washington Post reports that top fundraisers for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and Senator Barack Obama have begun private discussions aimed at merging the two candidates fundraising teams.While this is all inside baseball, I do know for a fact that there have been talks going on in downtown New York and in Washington for a few weeks now about how this nomination is going to go down, and how the party is going to handle it.  The race for the Democratic nomination officially continues through June 3, when Montana and South Dakota cast the final primary ballots.

Here is the scorecard as it stands right now:  Obama has 1,612 pledged delegates and 292 superdelegates, for a total delegate count of 1,904; Clinton has 1,443 pledged delegates and 274 superdelegates for a total delegate count of 1,717.  The magic number, that is, the number of delegates needed to win the nomination is 2,025.  At this point, neither candidate has reached that threshold. Barack Obama is shy 121 delegates to secure the nomination.  Hillary Clinton needs 308 delegates to get the nomination.  Check my math, but that’s the current picture. There are few primaries left: Kentucky, Oregon and Puerto Rico all vote within the next few weeks. On May 20, Kentucky (51 pledged delegates) and Oregon (52 pledged delegates) weigh in. On that day, 103 delegates are up for grabs.  Current polling has Hillary Clinton leading comfortably in Kentucky and Obama doing the same in Oregon. Hillary will pick up delegates, but due to the proportional distribution, so will Obama. A big win by Obama in Oregon will not blunt a big win by Hillary in Kentucky.   That brings us to June 3 and Puerto Rico with 55 pledged delegates.  Clinton has done well with Latino voters nationwide and could rack up a nice win in Puerto Rico.  But there is another key date to consider: May 31.

The Democratic Party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, a 30-member panel charged with interpreting and enforcing party rules, is to meet May 31 to consider how to handle Michigan and Florida’s 368 delegates.Last year, the panel imposed the harshest punishment it could render against the two states after they scheduled primaries in January, even though they were instructed not to vote until Feb. 5
or later. Michigan and Florida lost all their delegates to the national convention, and all the Democratic candidates agreed not to campaign in the two states.

Clinton has been arguing for full reinstatement, which would boost her standing. She won both states, even though they didn’t count toward the nomination and neither candidate campaigned in
them. Obama even had his name pulled from Michigan’s ballot.The Associated Press interviewed a third of the panel members and several other Democrats involved in the negotiations and found widespread agreement that the states must be punished for stepping out of line. If not, many members say, other states will do the same thing in four years.

The whole May 31st thing could be a moot point if Obama does pick up the pace and win more superdelegate delegates in the coming weeks, and win enough delegates in the remaining primaries to clinch the nomination.  We are not quite yet at endgame, but it is getting close.  What’s key is that a solution comes out of the May 31st meeting that is fair and equitable to the voters of Florida and Michigan, who should be represented at the convention. The voters should not be punished because state legislatures moved their primaries up earlier to make their states more prominent in the nomination process. Obama abided by the rules and did not campaign in Michigan and Florida and even had his name taken off the ballot in Michigan.  Clinton has been arguing for full reinstatement, which would boost her standing. She won both states, even though they didn’t count toward the nomination and neither candidate campaigned in
them.  What the May 31st meeting must do is come up with a solution that is palatable fair to the voters and to the candidates.  As idealistic as one wants to be, there will be deal-cutting at this meeting. If there is any whiff of fixing or rigging of the system on the part of either campaign, this will turn voters off, and the Democrats will be leading with their chin in November.

The Democratic Party must have a clear choice by the time they gather in Denver for their nominating convention.  The economy is the #1 issue on voters minds right now, and this is fertile ground for the Democrats to do very well in November.  It’s time to dust off Bill Clinton’s 1992 playbook. Hillary, Obama, to put it very plainly, it’s just like Jim Carville said : Change, versus more of the same, It’s the Economy Stupid, and Don’t forget about healthcare.  Now add an appendix to that playbook and release the 2008 revised edition: A unified Democratic Party, energized by a history-making primary campaign, with a clear plan for economic recovery and well financed and well coordinated effort across the country will defeat John McCain this November.   Either Hillary or Barack will be at the top of the ticket.  The winner must be humble and the loser must be gracious. The pundits have been discussing the so-called dream ticket of Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama for months now.  I have to come right out now and say that as removed as I have been from the process this year, really only donating money to some of the candidates, I now see this as not only viable and possible, but a necessity.  Both Clinton and Obama bring something to the table.  The symbolic significance of a ticket made of the an African American and a Woman would be hard to miss, but would also speak volumes about where our country, or at least the Democratic Party is at.  Could 2008 be the year that the age and gender barrier be broken through.  My gut tells me yes.  People want change, and they want solutions. They are not paying attention to skin color or gender.  They want to know what either of these candidates are going to accomplish once they are in the Oval Office.  I should think after almost 8 years with virtually no intelligient domestic policy initiatives coming from the Bush Administration, these two can put their heads together and come up with a winning strategy.

The unity ticket will help heal the inevitable wounds in the respective camps and clear the way and the focus to November, where the Republicans stand at the ready with John McCain. This is not the John McCain the Maverick of 2000. This is the John McCain  who will be molded and shaped by the Republican sleaze apparatus with many of Karl Rove’s acolytes lurking in the shadows.  The first sign of the tone the Republicans will take in the November campaign will be who McCain picks as his running mate.  The traditional role fr the Republican VP nominee is to be attack dog and straight man. 

So who will get the nomination in Denver: My gut tells me Obama.  Will Hillary accept the VP nomination if it is, and it should be, offered? That’s hard to guess.  What if Hillary pulls it off, and manages to win the nomination?  How does she hold on to all the new voters brought into the party by Obama.  Is this a balanced ticket, no matter who’s in the first position? Yes.  They both have strengths the other lacks.  Over the next few weeks, the voters in the remaining states will have their say. There will be a resolution on the Florida and Michigan delegates. Most if not all of the Superdelegates will have made up their minds.  It should be clear who the nominee will be.  But it is already clear what the ticket should be: unified. If this ends up to be a toxic convention like1968, then all bets are off, and we can look forward to having John McCain as our next president.